It's Derby time...Place yer bets

[litl rooster]

Open the windows and doors in this place...................Wash the Julieps Glasses...Here's the early contenders for the 137th running of the roses



http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders


"Stay Thirsty" is my early favorite only because Beer Miester isn't on the list

[Leo Tanner]

I'm torn between To Honor and Serve and Pants on fire.  love both those names.

[litl rooster]

another scientific approach

[Advertising]

[Leo Tanner]

Pants On Fire really grabbed me but the other called out to me as well.  It is science.  I have a few more equations to work out but I think I will have it by post time.

[litl rooster]

Results from yesterdays Woods Memorial a you tube link available.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2011_Wood_Memorial_G1

[litl rooster]

here's the gate to tomorrow's gate at the Arkansas Derby

http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2011_Arkansas_Derby_G1

[litl rooster]

Here's a chance for you to be the man with the bad toupe and free wager at the parimutal window

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/42364069

[Leo Tanner]

A lot of responsibility comes with 100 Gs ta bet.  Can ya just keep the money?

[litl rooster]

Arvharcharch won yesterday's Arkansas derby, if you had it to win it paid 12-1.  I frankly didn't see a Kentucky Derby winner in it.

[litl rooster]

currently it looks like these will be at the starting gate. Leo looks like Pants on Fire is the peoples favorite

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

[Leo Tanner]

currently it looks like these will be at the starting gate. Leo looks like Pants on Fire is the peoples favorite

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

Sweet, see the science works.

[litl rooster]

Leo I hope you and 4 Eye'd Buck got them Horns ready it's week to Post time


courtesy of the Daily Racing Form

Updated 4/28/2011
  Horse / Sire Watchmaker Odds,
Future Odds,
& Best Beyer Owner,
Trainer,
& Jockey Last Race (Beyer) Next Likely Race

1 Dialed In
by Mineshaft 4-1 8-1 97 Robert LaPenta
N. Zito/J. Leparoux Florida Derby, 4/3
1st by a head, 93 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  Jay Privman: Others have had a hiccup along the way. It's been smooth sailing for him.
Mike Watchmaker: Gets credit for consistency, but he's a favorite without a big form edge.

2 Nehro
by Mineshaft 6-1 2-1f 98 Zayat Stables
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani Arkansas Derby, 4/16
2nd by a neck, 98 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Has really gotten good in last few races, and Derby distance is right up his alley.
MW: Like everyone else, he'll need a decent trip, but he is a top threat to win the Derby.

3 Uncle Mo
by Indian Charlie 8-1 7-2 108 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez Wood Memorial, 4/9
3rd by 1 1/4, 92 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Encouraging work on Tuesday puts him squarely in Derby picture; mulligan for Wood?
MW: Even if he returns to form, the Derby distance has always been a question for him.

4 Archarcharch
by Arch 10-1 2-1f 98 Robert & Loval Yagos
W. Fires/J. Court Arkansas Derby, 4/16
1st by a neck, 98 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Court gave him a super ride in Ark. Derby, taking him back and making one late run.
MW: Lucky the wire got there when it did, but he's a lot better than anyone first thought.

5 Toby's Corner
by Bellamy Road 10-1 2-1f 94 Dianne Cotter
H. G. Motion/E. Castro Wood Memorial, 4/9
1st by a neck, 94 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Loved the way he won Wood, knifing through traffic from the back despite slow pace.
MW: Wasn't crazy about his Beyer, but soft Beyers were the rule in all final Derby preps.

6 Mucho Macho Man
by Macho Uno 12-1 30-1 99 Reeves T'bred Racg, et al
K. Ritvo/R. Maragh Louisiana Derby, 3/26
3rd by 3/4, 93 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Consistent colt figures to get a great trip by stalking the committed front-runners.
MW: He holds up to later prep results; six-week gap coming into this is a concern, though.

7 Midnight Interlude
by War Chant 15-1 2-1f 97 Arnold Zetcher
B. Baffert/V. Espinoza Santa Anita Derby, 4/9
1st by a head, 97 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Game winner of SA Derby, but didn't race at 2; that's a huge hurdle for Derby success.
MW: Many of these horses look so similar; maybe this could be the year that rule falls.

8 Master of Hounds
by Kingmambo 20-1 2-1f 80t Mrs. John Magnier
A. O'Brien/undecided U A E Derby, 3/26
2nd by a nose, 115 (RPR) Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Considering how wide open race has become, can you really blame Euro for trying?
MW: Barn merits respect, but it feels like they're just taking a stab in an average Derby.


9 Pants On Fire
by Jump Start 20-1 2-1f 94 George & Lori Hall
K. Breen/A. Napravnik Louisiana Derby, 3/26
1st by a neck, 94 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Napravnik seeking to be first female rider to win Derby; she made difference at FG.
MW: He might have been fortunate to beat the rapidly improving Nehro when he did.


10 Soldat
by War Front 20-1 18-1 103 Harvey Clarke, et al
K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia Florida Derby, 4/3
5th by 10 1/4, 76 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: If more speed keeps coming out of the race, he might get the trip he needs after all.
MW: That's his best shot, because he was ineffective when denied the lead last time.


11 Animal Kingdom
by Leroidesanimaux 25-1 2-1f 93 Team Valor International
H. G. Motion/R. Albarado Spiral, 3/26
1st by 2 3/4, 93 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Albarado will work him at CD this week; provided he handles dirt, he runs.
MW: Even if he handles dirt, he'll be facing much better in Derby than he beat at Turfway.

12 Brilliant Speed
by Dynaformer 25-1 2-1f 93 Live Oak Plantation
T. Albertrani/J. Rosario Blue Grass, 4/16
1st by a nose, 93 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Finished furiously in Blue Grass, but seems as though he's a turf/synthetic specialist.
MW: His first two career starts came on dirt, and he was beaten 19 1/4 and 21 lengths.

13 Comma to the Top
by Bwana Charlie 30-1 90-1 97 Barber, Birnbaum, et al
P. Miller/P. Valenzuela Santa Anita Derby, 4/9
2nd by a head, 97 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: With P. Val. aboard, you can be sure he will be a significant player in the early stages.
MW: They had it right when they were passing the Derby with this hard-hitting throwback.

14 Shackleford
by Forestry 30-1 2-1f 93 M. Lauffer & W. Cubbedge
D. Romans/J. Castanon Florida Derby, 4/3
2nd by a head, 93 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Fla. Derby performance was outstanding; took the heat, nailed late by Derby favorite.
MW: Was surprisingly game, but no one else beside Dialed In showed up in Fla. Derby.

15 Santiva
by Giant's Causeway 40-1 37-1 91 Tom Walters
E. Kenneally/S. Bridgmohan Blue Grass, 4/16
9th by 6 1/2, 82 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Didn't really get a clean trip in Blue Grass; won important stakes at CD last fall.
MW: Problem is, he doesn't have that one performance that says he can win the Derby.

16 Stay Thirsty
by Bernardini 40-1 40-1 89 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez Florida Derby, 4/3
7th by 16 3/4, 66 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Ran dreadfully in Fla. Derby, and Welsch wasn't crazy about his work Sunday. Pass.
MW: Agreed, he was awful at GP, but he did wallop Toby's Corner two back in Gotham.


17 Twinspired
by Harlan's Holiday 40-1 2-1f 93 Alpha St., Skychai Racing, et al
M. Maker/M. Smith Blue Grass, 4/16
2nd by a nose, 93 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Tough loss in Blue Grass; defections from those above him on earnings list got him in.
MW: In his only prior start on dirt, he was beaten almost 12 lengths at Remington Park.

18 Decisive Moment
by With Distinction 60-1 186-1 91 Just for Fun Stable
J. Arias/K. Clark Spiral, 3/26
2nd by 2 3/4, 88 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: There's a lot of clutter in this field. Hard to envision him even getting a piece of this.
MW: Another example of the disconnect between graded earnings and racing ability.

19 Twice the Appeal
by Successful Appeal 60-1 2-1f 89 Brown, Flores, & Hernandez
J. Bonde/C. Borel Sunland Derby, 3/27
1st by 1 1/2, 89 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: Was smartly managed to get plenty of graded cash and assure spot in 20-horse field.
MW: Just because you can do something, in this case run, it doesn't mean you should.

20 Watch Me Go
by West Acre 60-1 2-1f 84 Gilbert Campbell
K. O'Connell/undecided Illinois Derby, 4/9
6th by a 17, 66 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, 5/7
  JP: With the exception of Tampa Bay Derby, his form isn't much, but he's got the cash.
MW: And in Tampa Derby, he edged a horse who was claimed for $16K in his prior start.

 

[litl rooster]

  $2. on Stay Thirsty to win

[Leo Tanner]

Nine is my favorite number and just so happens ta be Pants on Fire.  I'm puttin down all the change I find in the sofa cushions.

[mestiza letty]

Ok here's my picks....
Master of Hounds (I know of this trainer from Ireland) Aidan O'Brien is killin' 'em dead from Coolmore stud. Knew his mother down in So Cal. Will this horse handle the dirt is the question.
Next is Pants on Fire, gotta go with a female jock!!
Then Stay Thirsty..
Gotta see later on in the week for post positions assigned and odds then will adjust my order 1-2-3.
Learned not to change my intitial choices...been burned before.....instincts, instincts...

[mestiza letty]

Hey y'all,
Post positions and early odds are up for the Derby 

[litl rooster]

137th Kentucky Derby
Purse: $2 million; 1 1/14 miles; Grade 1

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1
4. Stay Thirsty, R. Dominguez, 30-1
5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1
9. Derby Kitten, J. Castellano, 30-1
10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1
12. Santiva, S. Bridgmohan, 30-1
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1
17. Soldat, A. Garcia, 20-1
18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1
20. Watch Me Go, R. Bejarano, 50-1

Odds by Mike Watchmaker
Post time: 6:24 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC
All carry 126 pounds

I don't put alot into the post positions,

[mestiza letty]

Thanks Lil' Rooster I SHOULD have done the posting of the order
Just glad my picks are in the middle not the inside or outside gates...looks like anybody's race
My "Murphy's law luck" the grey horse Twinspired will win it..Crazy superstition I was told while back always to bet on the grey in the field...
Always get excited for the Derby

[litl rooster]

Thanks Lil' Rooster I SHOULD have done the posting of the order
Just glad my picks are in the middle not the inside or outside gates...looks like anybody's race
My "Murphy's law luck" the grey horse Twinspired will win it..Crazy superstition I was told while back always to bet on the grey in the field...
Always get excited for the Derby

II was always told not to bet on the Gray... I never cared for one as a saddle horse either, unlike some of the guys I worked with they prided them as some exotic color.

[Leo Tanner]

Just so long as there is no green horse it's anybodies race.