Howdy
Historically 44-40 groove diameter has varied a bit over the years. I load and shoot 44-40 for five different lever guns. I have slugged them all, the the rifling grooves for all of them are either .427 or .429. 44-40 rifling has varied in the past from as small as .425 to up over .430, so bullet selection can sometimes be troublesome.
When I first started playing cowboy I was shooting an original Winchester Model 1892 made in 1894, chambered for 44-40. The bore was pitted from poor maintenance over the years, but the rifling was still strong. The rifling grooves were .427 in diameter. I was shooting Smokeless at this time and I was not casting my own bullets. The only commercial bullets I could find were either .427 or .429 in diameter, so I started loading 44-40 with .427 bullets. These worked fine in the Winchester.
When the Black Powder bug hit I had read that it was better to shoot BP in a shiny bore rather than an old pitted bore. The theory was the thousands of tiny pits would hold onto fouling more and it would be more work to clean the bore. So I picked up a used Uberti 1873. This gun was made in the 1980s and also had .427 rifling grooves. While I was working up my loads for it I tried .427, .428, and .429 bullets in it. As several have already reported, I found out that the gun would shoot all three diameters just fine, but .429 bullets expanded the case mouth enough that chambering was difficult in the Uberti's tight chamber. So I kept on shooting .427 bullets. I also have an old Marlin Model 1894, made in 1895, also chambered for 44-40. This one too has .427 rifling and responds well to .427 bullets.
Then a few years ago I bought an Uberti Henry. When I slugged it I found out the rifling was .429. I did not want to put bullets .002 undersize down the bore, so I compromised and standardized my 44-40 bullets at .428. I cast my bullets out of pure, dead soft lead, and the .428 bullets do fine in the Henry's .429 rifling. As others have suggested, I suspect my soft lead bullets are bumping up in the bore and filling up the rifling.
Most buyers of recent Uberti rifles who have slugged their bores are reporting that they are seeing .429 rifling in their barrels, so my modern Henry falls right in there. Lastly, last year I found a terrific Winchester Model 1892 Saddle Ring Carbine made in 1918 with a bore that looked like it just left the factory. This one also measures .429.
So my experience duplicates the experience of many here. I find that a .428 soft lead bullet works fine in rifling of either .427 or .429 in diameter. I also find that bullets as large as .429 can be tough to seat in a tight chamber. I used to use Winchester brass exclusively because it had the thinnest brass at the case mouth. About .007 thick. Winchester is spotty in production and their 44-40 brass can be difficult to find. Last year I ordered 500 44-40 cases from Starline and I have been happy to find that it too was right about .007 thick at the case mouth.
Another vote for the Mav-Dutchman 200 grain Big Lube bullet for 44-40. I lube mine with SPG.
I have been using Schuetzen FFg pretty much exclusively for the last few years. I find it burns cleaner than Goex, leaving less fouling in the bore. It cleans up quicker, with fewer patches and less elbow grease. This is because Schuetzen uses the same Alder charcoal that the more expensive Swiss powder uses. A better powder overall than Goex, but at almost the same price as Goex. The stuff Graf sells is really Schuetzen in Graf's bottle. Schuetzen is made by Wano in Germany.
Your actual charge of powder will vary depending what powder you use. Not all BP weighs the same. I have my Lyman Black Powder measure set to deliver 2.2CC of powder, no matter what brand is in the hopper. This delivers enough powder to be compressed by 1/16"-1/8" when the bullet is seated, which is just about right. The actual weight of 2.2CC of Schuetzen FFg is about 33 grains, as opposed to about 34.5 grains for FFg Goex.